The price of PVC paste resin fluctuates significantly in the short term

In the first week of March, the price of domestic PVC paste resin fluctuated significantly in a narrow range, mainly due to the impact of fundamental and macro changes. However, the overall market expectation in March is still uncertain, and the follow-up may still be cautious.

In the first week of March, the price of domestic PVC paste resin fluctuated significantly, and the price fell first and then increased slightly. The price decline at the beginning of the week was mainly due to the weak fundamentals. Although most PVC paste resin enterprises basically completed the sales task in February, the inventory of some enterprises was high, and some enterprises were expected to increase the load in March, The expected recovery of demand is still weak, so the enterprise offer was lowered at the beginning of the week, with a decrease of 300-400 yuan / ton, and the market trading atmosphere has not improved significantly. The turning point in the middle of the week was mainly driven by the macro. The crude oil quickly broke through the mark of $100 / barrel, and the Brent crude oil surged to about $119 / barrel. Under this background, the Wenhua commodity index and the chemical sector showed an obvious upward trend, and the PVC futures also rose rapidly, which was significantly positive for the mentality of the paste resin market, Some terminals have begun to have the willingness to stock goods in the market, the market demand for replenishment has improved, and some low-cost brands have tried to increase shipments slightly, with an increase of 100-200 yuan / ton.

After the short-term mentality boost, can the market continue to remain optimistic? The short-term market has good effects:

The resumption of production supply of individual suspended enterprises is expected to increase

In March, the supply of PVC paste resin industry is expected to increase. Shenyang chemical industry will increase the operating load to the full production level at the beginning of this month. In addition, two suspended enterprises in Inner Mongolia Yidong and Shandong Langhui also began to resume production. Although the two enterprises will maintain low load or half load production after resuming production, the market supply is expected to increase.

Plant operation of domestic PVC paste resin Enterprises

Demand performance is general, and individual terminal orders are still weak

It is understood that at present, the market of some downstream industries of PVC paste resin is still weak. The atmosphere of new orders in the glove products industry is poor, and the price of orders is low. Some orders are at the edge of the cost line, and some even suffer losses. The mentality of product enterprises is poor. At present, the rival nesting just needs to purchase; The toy, leather, conveyor belt and other industries are also expected to see a significant improvement in demand, so some terminals purchase appropriately on bargain hunting, and the market wait-and-see mood may still exist.

The price focus of raw calcium carbide is upward, and the expected cost side is still supported

Some calcium carbide enterprises entered the maintenance stage this week, but some calcium carbide furnaces are resuming production. It is expected that the overall supply of calcium carbide next week will change little or decrease slightly on average compared with this week; From the perspective of demand, there is no new maintenance of PVC downstream of calcium carbide. With the rise of PVC powder price, the commencement of calcium carbide method may increase steadily or slightly; At present, the number of calcium carbide trucks to be unloaded in terminal enterprises continues to decline. If the number of trucks to be unloaded continues to decline significantly next week, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a follow-up increase in purchase price to strive for more supply. Therefore, the regional differences of calcium carbide market will narrow to a certain extent next week, and the terminal purchase price may start to drive the rise, affecting the overall market trading atmosphere, so as to comprehensively drive the overall price focus to continue to move upward.

Therefore, on the whole, the basic support of PVC paste resin is weak under the condition of increasing supply and no obvious improvement in demand in the short term. If the inventory pressure of some enterprises rises again, it is not ruled out to continue shipping, but the trend of international crude oil price in the future will have a great impact on the mentality of commodity market. The short-term calcium carbide PVC paste resin market may still maintain a cautious wait-and-see mentality, Some brands of Vinyl PVC paste resin may have stable medium and small rise expectations under the support of high cost.