Brief analysis on supply and demand of vinyl acetate and polyvinyl alcohol industries in 2022

(1) Upstream vinyl acetate industry:

1) Basic information of vinyl acetate industry: vinyl acetate (VAC) is an important organic chemical raw material with molecular formula of C4H6O2, also known as vinyl acetate and vinyl acetate. Vinyl acetate is mainly used in the production of polyvinyl alcohol, ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA resin), ethylene vinyl alcohol copolymer (EVOH resin), vinyl acetate vinyl chloride copolymer (vinyl chloride resin), white latex, acrylic fiber and other products. It is widely used in the fields of synthetic fiber, coating, slurry, film, leather processing, soil improvement and so on, and has broad prospects for development and utilization. The process routes of vinyl acetate include calcium carbide acetylene method, natural gas acetylene method and petroleum ethylene method. In China, calcium carbide acetylene method is mainly used. In 2020, the capacity of calcium carbide acetylene method will account for 62%.

2) Supply and demand of vinyl acetate Market and changes: in recent years, the market demand of vinyl acetate in China has shown an overall upward trend. In 2016, the apparent consumption of vinyl acetate in China was 1.94 million tons, and it increased to 2.33 million tons in 2019. In the first half of 2020, affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the operating rate of downstream industries was low, resulting in a small decrease in the apparent consumption of vinyl acetate to 2.16 million tons; With the stabilization of the epidemic situation in the second half of the year and the rapid recovery of economic production, the demand for vinyl acetate recovered rapidly from the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021, the market price increased significantly, and the industry returned to prosperity.

The demand structure of vinyl acetate in China is relatively stable, mainly polyvinyl alcohol, polyvinyl acetate, VAE lotion and EVA resin. By 2020, the proportion of polyvinyl alcohol in the domestic vinyl acetate consumption structure will reach 65%, and the total proportion of polyvinyl acetate, VAE lotion and EAV resin will be 31%.

At present, China has the largest production capacity of vinyl acetate in the world. In 2020, China's vinyl acetate production capacity will reach 2.65 million tons, accounting for about 40% of the world's total production capacity. In recent years, the backward capacity in China's vinyl acetate industry has gradually withdrawn, and at the same time, advanced capacity has been added to fill the market vacancy. With the continuous optimization of the industrial supply structure, the production of vinyl acetate in China has shown an overall growth trend. The domestic production of vinyl acetate has increased from 1.91 million tons in 2016 to 2.28 million tons in 2019, with an annual compound growth rate of 5.98%; In 2020, due to the sluggish international oil price, the production cost of overseas petroleum ethylene method decreased, the import of vinyl acetate in China increased, and the domestic production of vinyl acetate decreased to 1.99 million tons; Since the second half of 2020, with the recovery of global economy and the rise of international oil price, the production of domestic vinyl acetate industry has recovered.

3) Development trend of vinyl acetate industry:

① The main downstream application fields are developing steadily, and EVA resin and other emerging products are expected to become demand growth points: in terms of consumption structure, according to the statistics of China financial enterprise credit international consulting, polyvinyl alcohol, polyvinyl acetate and VAE lotion are the three major consumption fields of vinyl acetate, accounting for about 88% of the total consumption structure of vinyl acetate, and the demand for EVA resin accounts for about 8%. With the rapid development of photovoltaic, network communication and other industries, the demand for EVA resin in the fields of photovoltaic adhesive film, wire and cable has shown a rapid growth trend. According to the statistical data of Zhongjin Qixin International Consulting Co., Ltd., the average annual compound growth rate of the apparent consumption of EVA resin in China from 2016 to 2020 was 9.56%, reaching 1.879 million tons in 2020. However, in 2020, the domestic EVA production capacity was only 972000 tons, the import volume reached 1177000 tons, and the import dependency reached 62.6%. Under this background, domestic petrochemical enterprises have increased their investment in EVA field. According to the statistics of CICC Qixin international consulting, the domestic EVA production capacity will reach 800000 tons in 2021. At present, there are still many units planned to be put into production. According to the calculation of unit consumption of 0.22, the newly-built unit can pull the demand of 198000 tons of vinyl acetate under the condition of full production. The rapid development of EVA resin industry may become an important driving force to promote the growth of vinyl acetate consumption.

② Develop from conventional products to high-end products, and gradually realize import substitution: at present, the market competition of conventional vinyl acetate products is fierce, and leading enterprises with technical advantages will pay more attention to the production of high value-added products such as benzene free vinyl acetate. With the gradual maturity of domestic vinyl acetate production technology, the supply capacity of high-end products has increased, and it is expected to gradually replace imported products in the future. In recent years, China's apparent consumption of vinyl acetate has increased year by year, while the import volume is relatively stable, and the proportion of imported products has decreased. However, some high-end vinyl acetate products still rely on imports, and there is room for further domestic substitution in the future.

③ Environmental protection and production restriction promote industrial integration and achieve benign development: with the improvement of environmental protection standards in the chemical industry, some small and medium-sized enterprises and backward production capacity that fail to meet environmental protection standards and have high production costs gradually withdraw, the effective production capacity of the vinyl acetate industry decreases, and the actual operating rate increases. In the future, with the increasing concentration of the industry, the vinyl acetate industry will show a trend of continuous increase in high-end capacity and partial withdrawal of medium and low-end capacity, which is expected to achieve further development.