PVC resin prices have fallen to a low point, paying attention to downstream trends and industry inventory

At present, the supply return of maintenance equipment in September and the weak demand trend downstream are still the biggest factors dragging down the market. In addition, the price of calcium carbide is also in a weak position. On the one hand, a decrease in costs may create a negative impact on valuation, and on the other hand, a decrease in calcium carbide prices will provide more profit space, which will gradually attract inventory devices to increase supply and continue to exacerbate the loose environment of supply. It should be pointed out that we are not strongly bearish about the future market, but the increase in PVC requires the downstream to gradually increase the load and start replenishing raw materials, in order to absorb the supply increment formed by the completion of maintenance and profit restoration from September to October as much as possible, and ultimately drive the long-term stagnation of social inventory development. Therefore, the downstream trend is particularly important now and after the small and long vacation in October, which will be a key variable determining the supply-demand balance trend of PVC in the future. The changes in the downstream will be reflected in the overall inventory of the industry. If downstream demand can drive the pace of inventory accumulation in the entire industry to slow down or even shift to comprehensive destocking, then PVC still has an upward drive.

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